2 years ago
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The Pac-12 shot play begins successful afloat unit aboriginal contiguous with Utah and Arizona State successful enactment against teams from the Football Championship Subdivision.
The Utes commencement astatine 4:30 p.m. (Pacific) and should person Weber State successful the shredder by 5:15.
The Sun Devils are connected the tract astatine 7:30 against Southern Utah and conscionable mightiness deed 40 by halftime.
It’s a fitting commencement for some teams considering their brushed non-conference schedules could go a superior occupation for the league by the archetypal play successful December.
Let’s plunge into the scheduling weeds and crippled retired a script that’s not astir arsenic implausible arsenic it mightiness archetypal appear.
Our premise: Utah and Arizona State person the endowment and acquisition to triumph the South division. Either squad could upwind up successful Las Vegas, 1 triumph from the league title and perchance a berth successful the College Football Playoff.
We’re skeptical of anyone navigating league play without a nonaccomplishment — nary squad has gone undefeated since Oregon successful 2010.
But an 8-1 people successful league play isn’t unrealistic, whether it’s Oregon, Washington, USC, Utah oregon ASU. The Utes and Ducks did it 2 years ago, successful fact.
That’s wherever non-conference schedules participate the calculation.
The Utes look Weber State, Brigham Young and San Diego State.
The Sun Devils play Southern Utah, UNLV and Brigham Young.
There isn’t a top-25 squad successful the radical — oregon possibly adjacent a top-40 team.
San Diego State was picked 3rd successful the Mountain West preseason poll, portion BYU is apt to regress without prima backmost Zach Wilson.
Put different way: Utah and ASU volition beryllium favored to expanse their non-conference games.
(The opponents were arranged years ago, earlier either squad had a consciousness for its roster oregon imaginable successful 2021.)
Now, let’s bash the math:
Combine those 3-0 marks extracurricular of league … with a azygous nonaccomplishment successful league … and a triumph successful the rubric crippled … and presto: That’s a 12-1 season.
Next, ideate the playoff enactment committee’s last gathering of the season, connected the archetypal play of December.
Any one-loss title from a Power Five league is connected the abbreviated database of contenders. But those non-conference schedules could beryllium an obstacle for the Utes oregon Sun Devils.
The Hotline examined the schedules for each CFP subordinate since the Pac-12’s past quality successful the event, by Washington successful 2016.
We ignored the 2020 play due to the fact that of the disruption and the season’s constricted non-conference matchups crossed the country, leaving america with 3 years (2017-19) and 12 semifinalists to analyze.
In 11 of the 12 cases, CFP participants played astatine slightest 1 non-conference crippled against a Power Five opponent.
The objection was Ohio State successful 2019, and the Buckeyes — successful summation to being the Buckeyes — were capable to assertion a triumph implicit 11-win Cincinnati that year.
Now, see a script successful which Utah oregon Arizona State wins the Pac-12 and is smack successful the mediate of the playoff treatment with a 12-1 mark.
As the enactment committee assesses the comparative merits of each candidate, it volition undoubtedly comparison non-conference schedules.
For the bluish bloods, non-conference lineups mightiness not beryllium a deal-breaker. But ASU and Utah are outsiders — sub-elite programs that astir apt won’t get the payment of the uncertainty from the committee oregon a shred of respect from the narrative-driving nationalist media.
Those brushed schedules conscionable mightiness beryllium the information constituent that blocks Utah oregon ASU from the playoff — that denies the Pac-12 the accidental to extremity its CFP drought.
(Important point: The Pac-12’s different preseason favorites, Oregon, Washington and USC, each person marquee non-conference games.)
That said, assemblage shot tends to travel successful unexpected directions, and we spot 3 scenarios successful which Utah and ASU could marque the playoff arsenic one-loss Pac-12 champions contempt their schedules:
— Either BYU oregon San Diego State is markedly amended than expected and produces a nine- oregon 10-win play that clears the barroom for the committee.
— A maximum of 3 teams from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC decorativeness the play with 13-0 oregon 12-1 records, giving the committee casual justification for including the 12-1 Utes oregon Sun Devils arsenic the 4th semifinalist.
— The Pac-12 has an bonzer season, replete with first-class non-conference wins and a bevy of teams successful the CFP rankings — a operation that would people fortify its champions’ resume.
In our view, the astir realistic script is an evident outcome: Either a one-loss Pac-12 champion makes the CFP without controversy; oregon the league doesn’t nutrient a qualified candidate.
But successful that hazy, muddled mediate ground, there’s country for Utah oregon ASU to emerge, brushed docket successful tow, arsenic a contender connected the last weekend.
In that situation, expect to perceive howling and jeering from each crossed the land.
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